WDC Blog - From the Front Line

Quite a few people have been looking at the very cold weather around Europe of the last few weeks and suggesting that this is disproving the notion that we are being affected by climate change. Their theory is that this is a sign that the planet is not really warming up. Sadly they are wrong.

It is not cold everywhere in the world at this time and, in fact, in North-east America, Canada, North Africa, the Mediterranean, and south-west Asia have all recently seen temperatures above normal. In some places this has been by more than 5 °C, and in parts of northern Canada, by more than 10 °C.

The immediate reason for the very cold weather in much of Europe at this time is that the air stream has been coming to us from the North. More usually it comes from the west in the winter and is warmed by the relatively warm Atlantic. (Typically this gives the UK milder winters than continental Europe.) For the last few weeks the Atlantic air movement has been ‘blocked’ and cold air has been flowing down from the Arctic or the cold winter landmass of Europe.

So what we are experiencing is part of the usual winter weather pattern (albeit it an unusually cold one) and it does not tell us anything about climate change.

The UK Met Office provides some further information here.

And please don't forget to put some extra food and some water out for the birds whilst the chill continues.

As is traditional at this time of year, the air is stirred by a gentle ringing of bells. But it is not the bells on a sleigh.

The Year, now ancient, her mind increasingly filled with holes, is ringing the bells by her bed summoning the Nurse. She doesn’t want anything except some company in her final days, and perhaps some reassurance.

She asks the question that she has forgotten that she has already asked many times before.

‘Was I kind?’

‘You were neither kind nor unkind’ says the Nurse gently, stroking her hand.

‘Will the people remember me? I would like to be remembered.’

‘Oh yes’, says the nurse, ‘You will certainly be remembered. You were the year when a great global recession lingered; you were the year when nations recognised that they were cooking the planet but failed to agree how to turn the heat down. You were the year when war, famine, weird weather and ignorance dominated global business. You marked the end of the first decade of the twenty first century. You were indeed an important and most memorable year.’

‘But I do not sound kind’, says the Year weakly turning her face away from the nurse, silent tears falling.

‘It’s not your fault dear old Year. It’s the people.’

‘What about the animals? Was I kind to the animals? I like the animals.’

‘Well’, the nurse pauses, and takes a deep breath, ‘Your passage saw a growing awareness by the people of animals as unique, valued, often sentient beings… as intelligences unlike their own, but still to be respected and cherished.’

The Nurse gently combs the grey tresses of the rapidly aging Year and smiles sweetly into her old rheumy eyes. He does not vocalise his own thoughts that, despite this awareness in some parts, cruelty continued to abound and people were more distracted than ever by their own immediate concerns. Nor does he mention that as conditions on the planet get more difficult, so he anticipates that the people will focus more and more on themselves and the animals will be increasingly forgotten.

But the Year has been reassured. ‘That’s good’, she gently sighs and then suddenly dozes. The Nurse tiptoes away until he will be summoned again to answer similar questions.

Soon it will be time to gently apply the medical sickle and the Year will pass.

Soon the jingling bells will be silent.

Soon, the Nurse will attend the urgent cries of the Baby, when little Twenty Ten arrives; a new year, even a new decade, full of promise and full of hope for all the denizens of the stressed planet.

The nurse knows that 2010 will keep him busy. There will be more people alive than at any previous time. Where the systems break down; the resources prove inadequate; or the planet rages in fever, then the merciful sickle will fall and the Nurse will take the fallen away. Where habitats and ecosystems fail he will do the same for the animals. So it is that some people, some populations, and even some whole species and will end before their potential span. But there is yet hope. A whole new year and a new decade to come that could mark a new beginning as novel rays of understanding and appreciation start to shine into the dark recesses of human minds. If humankind works together and applies its ingenious minds, things can still be resolved for the better.

The nurse stares into the void ‘Think people!’ he calls. ‘Think hard; understand and apply yourselves to your urgent responsibilities.’  Otherwise, in twelve short months, the Nurse will again find himself embellishing the truth for another dying year, and for all his kindness, he does not like to lie.  

“It is not fiction it is science… the question… is no longer the nature of the challenge the question is our capacity to meet it….[but] our ability to take collective action is in doubt right now.”

With these words, US President Barack Obama, today called for urgent action at the Copenhagen climate summit to agree a deal on its last day.

However it appears that what is now being discussed has been stripped of any targets. Because countries simply cannot agree, simply cannot find that middle ground and we may well be left with just a wish list.

Two years ago they committed to making a new and binding agreement, now commentators suggest that the battle is on just to have some sort of paper agreement to take home.

It seems unlikely that there can now be a legally-binding treaty complete with verifiable emission and temperature targets or even a deadline to agree such a thing.

It seems that our species is just not us to this job any more than the dinosaurs were able to adapt to the global changes that ultimately wiped them out.

More information: BBC News/BBC Blog

So we come to the end of the first week of the climate summit in Copenhagen. We know a few more things now than we did when the meeting began. For example, it seems that the toilet facilities in the conference centre are not adequate for the number of people there. This cannot be helping negotiations. We know from IWC meetings that key figures missing in the toilet (or occasionally ‘gone shopping’) can change the whole nature and outcome of a debate.

We also know now that President Obama will join the summit towards its end next week, further signalling serious engagement from the US.

To coincide with the summit Bristol University has launched some scary new information about ocean acidification (another product of excess CO2 in the atmosphere) which underlines a significant threat to marine systems (although I cannot find a link to paper on this just advance press notice – so I cannot point you at the research yet).

Back in Copenhagen, there is also an offer on the table for a substantive contribution from Europe (with the UK proffering a major part of this) to help the developing nations.

This all seems surprisingly positive given early concerns that nothing would be agreed. Is it possible that the Copenhagen is going to produce something meaningful? Well, there is a way to go yet.

What is less positive is the outburst of outspoken views of the climate-change ‘nay-sayers’ who continue to state that this is all a big con. Indeed it is reported that only about half the people in the UK believe climate change is a problem. This is a real problem for the negotiating politicians because they need a strong public mandate in order to be able to do their jobs. The journalist Ben Goldacre writing in the Guardian today (Saturday 12^th) suggests that part of the reason for public doubt is because the government has a bad reputation in its use of science. Politicians, he suggests, are simply not trusted in their use of science.

We probably all have some sympathy with this. But what do those governments seeking a negotiation and pledging money to help do so even at this difficult economic time, have to gain beyond addressing this urgent threat?  Equally, what have all these scientists standing together in their call for action got to benefit? Promotion of their careers? There could be an element of this. There is no doubt that climate scientists have become important scientists as this issue has developed. But they could still be important and successful scientists without making a call for action which some characterise as extreme. Indeed there is a risk to them as the recent spin and extreme scrutiny of some emails from the University of East Anglia may show.

Historically, we have had scientists being given a very hard time over other emergent issues. This is not new. Powerful players may not like news that counters their economic interests. The breaking of the news about the dangers of organochlorine pollutants in aquatic systems is one example. Marine noise pollution is another such issue and we are still deep in the debates with this about how far the science can go and how precautionary noise users and conservation managers need to be.

Goldacre, who writes a regular and fascinating column in the Guardian called ‘Bad Science’ where he typically debunks poor use of science, suggests that there is a recognizable repeating of themes in the arguments of the climate change nay-sayers. The same arguments come up again and again. They know the answers to these arguments but they make them anyway and some (who have not heard the arguments) continue to be affected by them.

We deal in lots of issues where science does not provide any simple answers at WDCS. I am not sure that I believe in unbiased science. Scientists are after all only people with view and aspirations like the rest of us (no matter how much some may like to dress this up). However there is an overwhelming and unprecedented weight of scientific support which says climate change is here and human activities, particularly the discharges of carbon dioxide, are the primary cause. The final leg of this situation is that action needs to come fast.

Source: Bad Science

Finally one thing that is nagging at the back of my brain is the issue of whatever agreement the nations reach in Copenhagen, how will it be policed? A country might agree to cut its emissions by a percentage but how will anyone know if this is actually successful. How can an independent check on a country’s emissions be made. I hope some smart people somewhere are thinking about this.

For regular updates from the Climate conference try the BBC's blog by Richard Black.  

What an amazing week it has been in Australian politics. Poised as we were for pre-Copenhagen Emissions Trading legislation to be passed, a leadership spill in the opposition Liberal Party (centre-right) and their subsequent radical and swift retreat from climate change policy caused the second defeat of the legislation in the Senate, and a trigger for the Government to call a double dissolution election. Mere hours ago, the Government announced that it will bring the legislation back for a third attempt in February, but this will be after the Copenhagen meeting.